Geopolitics, Security and Bilateral Relations: Perspectives From India and South Korea by B. K. Sharma & M. H. Rajesh

Author:B. K. Sharma & M. H. Rajesh [Sharma, B. K. & Rajesh, M. H.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: History, Asia, Korea, Political Science, Essays, Geopolitics
ISBN: 9789385563836
Google: huHUAQAACAAJ
Goodreads: 33257006
Publisher: VIJ BOOKS INDIA
Published: 2017-01-15T09:29:00+00:00

Assessment of North Korea’s Nuclear Capability

North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are generally regarded as advancing, but along a path that contains notable technological obstacles to functioning of the capabilities. An assessment of the country’s current capabilities shows that uncertainty still exists about whether North Korea has managed to overcome some of the hurdles that analysts believe are in their way.

Explosive Yield of Nuclear Tests

It is hard to say exactly the magnitude of the nuclear explosive yield. The explosive yield could be different depending on the site’s geology and what kinds of measures are used to calculate. The measures can be inferred in remote sensing ways and scaling law calculations based on blast size, infrasound, fireball brightness, seismographic data, and shock wave strength.

North Korea has conducted four nuclear tests since 2006. The first test yield was less than one kiloton, and the second test was a large yield of two to six kilotons. South Korean Defence Ministry said that its third test in 2013 calculated by the seismic waves indicated a blast of six to nine kilotons15 though competing assumptions about the site’s geology leave some doubt over the accuracy of this assessment. According to the special event report of Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), the yield of the North Korea’s test in 2013 is estimated at 19.8 kilotons, with minimum and maximum yields of 14.8 and 39.5 kilotons.16 While the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), a state-run geology research institute in Germany, places the estimate to be 40 kilotons.17 If the explosive yield were six to nine kilotons, as reported by the South Korean authorities, this would suggest that North Korea still lacks the ability to miniaturize its warhead and would need additional nuclear tests to achieve it.

On 6 January 2016, North Korea claimed that it conducted a successful test of a miniaturized hydrogen bomb. South Korean authority officially announced that it registered magnitude 4.9 and yielded only a six kilotons explosion, although some institutes said that the fourth test was detected up to a 5.1 magnitude seismic event. It is important to note that the seismic event magnitude and estimated yield are significantly different depending on the institutes and scaling law calculations as seen in table

Table 1. Estimated Explosive Yield

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